Stats I'd like to see

As I was watching last night's game, where the Avs lost after holding a one goal lead going into the third, I kept noticing things that drove me insane during the game. I think there's some statistics out there that could be telling (like how bad a coach really is, and how hard a team is playing, etc), but I can't track them myself, and I have no idea how or where to track them. So here's some stats I'd like to see...

1) 3rd period GA while holding a 2 or 1 goal lead. I can't imagine the Avs have a very good record here. The way we play the "cling for dear life" after getting a late lead, that nearly never works BTW, I can only assume the Avs are nearly last in the league.

2)Average Continuous Offensive Zone time. This is the Average time a team spends in the offensive zone before the defense clears. It seems to me as if the Avs lack of forechecking, despite having quality forecheckers in Wolski, Brunette, and Smyth, means the Avs only get a few moments in the offensive zone before the defense clears.

3) Icings taken by a team on the PP. Again I'm going to assume the Avs lead the league in this category.

Unfortunately a "Moneyball" type website doesn't exist where people just wqatch hockey and keep obscure, yet extremely valuable, stats yet (or if it does I haven't found it).

7 comments:

  1. Interesting points! It's always fun to come up with new ways to describe your favorite team's underperformance. I should be able to come up with something about #3 (icings on the power play) tomorrow, if you like...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Be wary of what you ask for. Here is the scoop on the Avs and the third period.

    Through 61 games this year:
    59 goals against in the 3rd period
    0.96 GAA in the 3rd
    Record: 30-25-6

    Games with the lead going into 3rd:
    24 of 61
    26 goals against in the 3rd period
    1.08 GAA in the 3rd
    Record: 20-2-2

    Games tied or behind going into the 3rd period:
    37 of 61
    33 goals against in the 3rd period
    1.12 GAA in the 3rd
    Record: 10-23-4

    The Avs are actually a pretty good third period team, they suffer from terrible starts. From the numbers they tighten up in the 3rd, especially when they have the lead. Having the lead for the Avs is the difference between success and failure, their record when tied or behind going into the 3rd is what is sinking the ship.

    ReplyDelete
  3. @ Forecheck... I'd love if you did something on #3, I went ahead and worked on number 1 (see above).

    @ jim: I knew the Avs were a good third period team overall, but I am talking about just when they have a small lead. Especially lately, when the strategy has shited when tied or in the lead in the third. See my most recent post.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jim

    I think you made a mistake in your calculations... GAA is GA/60 min. I think your numbers are reflective of GA/20min.

    For example a goalie that give up one goal in a normal game has a GAA of 1.00. That's 60 min of play time.

    so 59 GA in 61 games is not a GAA of .96, but it's really 2.88.

    When leading going into the third it's an awful 3.24

    And trailing or tied it's 3.36.

    They are truly awful defensively in the third period, even with the lead. They've just pulled out some wins (mostly early in the season)

    ReplyDelete
  5. This is so much fun, I haven't done a lick of work today because of this post.

    You are correct that the GAA calculation was for GA/20 minutes. The Avs aren't terribly bad in the third, it's that they are universally bad through out the game. Let's express it this way:

    Goals against for the year: 169
    Goals against in the first: 53
    Goals against in the second: 52
    Goals against in the third: 59
    Goals against for the SO losses: 5

    If you look at it as 3rd vs 1st + 2nd, the Avs are in a huge hole by the time the the third starts. The difference in GAA calculated per period per game through 61 games would work out to:

    GAA in the first: .86
    GAA in the second: .85
    GAA in the third: .96

    or

    GAA in the 1st + 2nd: 1.72
    GAA in the 3rd: .96

    I was looking at it by a purely period by period basis. Statistically speaking, the Avs are no better defensively in any of the periods. Or we could look at it this way:

    Games with a one goal lead after two periods: 13 of 61. 10-1-2 record. The Ducks loss last night ends up being an abberation, since after two periods with a one goal lead in 13 games, the Avs have won 10 of them. They are good enough to hold onto a one goal lead, they aren't good enough to come from behind though. The Avs after 61 games are 4-17-2 going into the third behind by a goal or more.

    The Avs goal differential is a -2 (167 GF vs 169 GA). They just don't have the offense right now to overcome a defensive system that is giving up an average of 2.77 goals a game.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hmm, that's interesting.

    I didn't have time today, but I should have looked at the second and 1st periods when I did my latest post that addressed this.

    But from the spreadsheet I put together today the Avs were 15-1-0 if they lead at any point in the third period by less than 2 goals before mid December.

    After that they have dropped off considerably, being 6-1-3. Now a big part of that is not getting leads in the first place (look at the difference in the number of games in each of those stats) but their ability to hold the lead has really slipped in the second half of the season. More specifically in February they are just 2-0-2 in Ferbuary when holding a slim lead in the third period. That's a lot worse than the 15-1-0 in the first half of the season.

    I suggest we continue this conversation in the most recent post, where I've actually done som analysis.

    ReplyDelete
  7. It looks like I won't be able to get to the power play icings today, so check back on Monday. It's probably a pretty rare occurence, but provides good fodder for making fun of the worst teams...

    ReplyDelete