The Avs... just Unlucky?

A lot has been made about the Avs lack to put up goals the last 10 or so games. They have only averaged 2.25 Goals per game over the last 8 games and really if you just looked at the scores would think they were getting worked over pretty bad.

With Sakic and Smyth out you'd also think the Avs would have an excuse, and were refocusing thier strategy to try and grind out wins in 2-1 games. You'd be completely wrong. The fact of the matter is, before tonight, the Avs hit the low point of the season (hopefully) with 4 straight losses, the last 3 coming against the power house duo of the LA Kings and Phoenix Coyotes. Between those losses, the Sakic news, the Smyth news the Avs season looked to be in the crapper.

A further look at some numbers shows, the Avs have been fairly unluck recently too. Here's a list of the goalies they have played in the last 8 games:
J.S Giguere, Lundqvist, Luongo, Hasek, Aubin, Bryzgolov (x2) and tonight DiPietro. That's a pretty healthy list of Goalies, all of which seemed to have great nights against the Avs recently. After some quick research it seems that those goalies have a phenominal .933 save % against the Avs over the last 8 games with both Lunqvist and DiPietro showing that the Atlantic is where the goalies live. (Seriously here's the Atlantic's Goalies: King Henrik Lundqvist, Martin Brodeur, Martin Brion, DiPietro.. and whoever the crappy goalie du jour is for the Pens. 4 out of 5 are awesome, and that's 3 potential hall of famers {even though it's too early to tell for King Henrik and DiPi.} yet I digress).

I would love to give you the average goals against average for the league right now, but I'm not paid for this, and I have yet to find a good stat page that transfer's straight to Excel yet, and I'm not good enough coder to get it to do it. Over the last 8 games the Save % against the Avs is .933, as I mentioned earlier, the BEST save % in the league right now is: .931, shared by Chris Osgood and Tim Thomas of Boston. So the Avs have played against phenomenal goal tending recently. Over those 8 games they are 3-3-2. to be basically .500 against the best goaltending in the league, this includes the worst part of the season for the Avs.

Honestly, I am pumped about this. If the Avs had faced average, even above average goaltending in that stretch they would have probably been closer to 5-2-1 or 6-1-1. Yet they were still 3-3-2 playing against goaltending that was better than the best in the league. Honestly, this makes me feel even better about the Avs chances for the rest of the season. Law of averages says they will likely (hopefully) face some "Below average" goaltending (not coincidentally, they are facing the Southeast in this upcoming roadtrip. here's their save % and rank:
Vokun: .919 (T-7)
Lehtonin: .902 (T-27)
Ward: .902 (T-27)
Hedberg: .897 (T-35)
Kolzog: .891 (40)
Holmqvist: .886 (T-crappy)

Look for the Avs to score, in bunches, on this upcoming road trip. They might even up their completely pitiful powerplay.

5 comments:

  1. "They might even up their completely pitiful powerplay."

    If they keep putting Hejduk and/or Wolski on the point, then I don't have my hopes up :)

    The Atlantic is filled with great goaltenders and mediocre ones passing themselves off as great. Conklin is currently 7-0 with the Pens with a 2.00 GAA and .939 save percentage.

    But it is amazing what great goaltending will do for a team's winning percentage. Here's to the Avs lightning up the Southeast!

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  2. I would have to agree. I mean, Bryzgalov made 42 saves against Colorado on 12/31! 42! What team makes 42 shots, and still loses?!? Seriously.... Go AV'S!

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  3. Injuries have plagued Colorado this season because they have come at such inopportune times. They'll come around. The goaltending does need to be addressed. I'll give you Al Montoya for J.M. Liles, by the way Jibbles, no link? Ouch ;)

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  4. I'd do that trade in a heartbeat, HEARTBEAT Pucks, but umm I would think you guys would want more. Montoya is the #9 prospect in hockey according to "Hockey's Future"

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  5. 1) Looking forward to seeing the Av's for the first time in-person this season on Wednesday!
    2) Your analysis about Atlantic/SE goalies is dead-on! If all goes to form the Av's should score no less than 3 goals on any of the SE teams. The key will to keep their offensive weapons(Ovechkin/Kovolchuk, Lacavlier, Staal, etc)off the score sheet.

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