More on Offensive efficiency...

So I'll admit that Yesterday's post about offensive efficiency, I was coming in a little biased. I thought from the beginning that Stastny was a more efficient scorer than Malkin, and that Malkin got the benefit of more powerplay time, and that's why he is probably going to win the Calder tonight. I really tried to approach it as objectively as I could, but I caught myself thinking, Is this a valid statistic? Or did I devise a stat to prove my point This is a pet peeve of mine so I wanted to apply it objectively to a group of players and see if it meets my expectations.

So I decided to apply it to the entire Avs roster. Obviously if Kurt Sauer turns out to be more effective offensively than Joe Sakic, this is a bogus stat. So todays post is a test of the statistic. Based on my own personal bias, and a scout's analysis (i.e. In The Cheap Seats fantastic analysis of Avs players) I would guess that the 5 most efficient scorers would be Sakic, Hejduk, Stasny, Brunette and Wolski in that order. For defense It's a little different, but I would guess Liles and Clark top that list. (NOTE: I left off players who didn't have enough ice time to really be a good statistical analysis. That would make anamolous readouts, so I stayed with players with a significant chunck of ice-time.)

For even strength here's the analysis:

Player ES TOI/20 ES points ESP/20 ESG/20 ESA/20
Joe Sakic 59.43 57 0.959 0.337 0.623
Paul Stastny 50.24 46 0.916 0.338 0.577
Milan Hejduk 50.36 45 0.894 0.437 0.457
Andrew Brunette 54.69 47 0.859 0.329 0.530
Tyler Arnason 48.93 37 0.756 0.307 0.450
Brett McClean 45.66 34 0.745 0.329 0.416
Wojtek Wolski 48.33 32 0.662 0.310 0.352
Ian LaPerriere 47.99 28 0.583 0.167 0.417
Marek Svatos 32.72 19 0.581 0.214 0.367
Brad Richardson 37.06 19 0.513 0.297 0.216
Mark Rycroft 26.10 12 0.460 0.230 0.230


From this It looks as if my statistic holds up. The most efficient scorers on the Avs are, in order,

Sakic
Stastny
Hejduk
Brunette
Arnason

The only suprise there is Arnason is on this list and Wolski is actually 7th. the dropoff from 4-5 is pretty big too. (>.1), which doesn't suprise me either. It shows just how bad Svatos' year was last season, based on his efficiency being worse than LaPerriere. For a guy whose chances in the NHL rest on his ability to score points, that's nto a good thing. Now on the Power play:

Player Name PPTOI/20 PP-Points PPP/20 PPG/20 PPA/20
Andrew Brunette 16.862 36 2.135 0.534 1.601
Paul Stastny 14.960 31 2.072 0.735 1.337
Joe Sakic 20.876 43 2.060 0.766 1.293
Wojtek Wolski 9.701 17 1.752 0.722 1.031
Milan Hejduk 14.858 24 1.615 0.808 0.808
Marek Svatos 8.423 11 1.306 0.950 0.356
Tyler Arnason 9.593 12 1.251 0.104 1.147
Brett McClean 4.329 1 0.231 0.000 0.231

Well Brunette being on the top really suprises me. I would think Sakic would be #1, so him being #3 is a huge suprise. Wolski being more efficient on the Power play than Hejduk also suprises me a lot because hejduk plays on the first PP unit, with Sakic and Brunette and Stastny for most of the season. Overall it holds up though even with the anamolies (sakic #3, Wolski> Hejduk, etc.)

For defense the stats come out like:

Player ES TOI/20 ES points ESP/20 ESG/20 ESA/20
Jean-Michael Liles 44.26 16 0.362 0.136 0.226
Brett Clark 68.08 24 0.353 0.088 0.264
Ken Klee 66.34 18 0.271 0.045 0.226
Patrice Brisbois 23.33 6 0.257 0.000 0.257
Karlis Skrastins 56.90 11 0.193 0.000 0.193
Ossi Vaananan 51.15 8 0.156 0.039 0.117
Kurt Sauer 37.59 5 0.133 0.000 0.133


Which pretty much meets my expectations going in.
It shows how bad Brisbois was in the games he played in (lower points than Ken Klee is terrible).

For Completeness, Defense on the power play:

Player Name PPTOI/20 PP-Points PPP/20 PPG/20 PPA/20
Jean-Michael Liles 17.871 28 1.567 0.448 1.119
Brett Clark 13.735 14 1.019 0.291 0.728
Patrice Brisbois 4.905 5 1.019 0.204 0.815
Ken Klee 5.101 0 0.000 0.000 0.000


Showing that Liles is more efficient on the Powerplay (of course he was playing with Sakic, Brunette, Hejduk and Stastny most of the time, so there is still things unaccounted for).

So I think after this analysis that this is a pretty good statistic. All that's left is to give it a nerdy name/acronym. So I think i am going to start calling it the On-Ice Efficiency (OIE).

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