Well I think a better (albeit not perfect) measurement of a person's offensive production would be a stat I am calling offensive efficiency. IT is basically points per game, but broken down into how well you score in like situations. For example a guy who scores 35 goals, with 30 on the powerplay isn't as valuable as someone who scores 35 goals with only 5 on the powerplay. while that's a bit extreme I think the point is, a better comparison of players is how well each one scores ES goals as compared to PP goals. So I have some stats that are Points/20min. this is points per 20 minutes of ice time, and is a measure of how each player scores at even strength.
The reason for using Even Strength. So I have taken the total even strength ice time for these players for the entire season and divided it by 20 minutes, mainly so we're working with approximately 1 games worth of ice time. Then I used their even strength points, goals and assists to basically see who is a more efficient scorer.
|
| Player | A | B | C | D |
| PP-Ice Time (season) | 333:08 | 97:43 | 448:44 | 299:12 |
| PP-Pts | 29 | 6 | 40 | 31 |
| PP-Goals | 7 | 4 | 16 | 11 |
| PP-Assists | 22 | 2 | 24 | 20 |
| PP-Pts/20min | 1.74 | 1.23 | 1.78 | 2.07 |
| PPGoals/20min | 0.42 | 0.817 | 0.713 | 0.735 |
| PP-Assists/20min | 1.32 | 0.409 | 1.07 | 1.34 |
Well after looking at these numbers it looks like Player D is a more efficient on the Power Play as well. While Player B is still a better goal scorer (.817 goals/20min) and his power play assist efficiency is awful. On the powerplay it seems as if Player D is again a more efficient scorer.
So it looks as if Player D is a little bit better offensively than the other three players. Now it's time to compare their defensive abilities. ± is a terrible statistic because it is too dependant on a teams overall ability, not an individuals. The best way I can think of to measure is through objective coaches judgment, which can be measured in PK ice time per game.
| Player | A | B | C | D |
| SH ice time | 2:05 | 3:02 | :27 | 2:16 |
So in conclusion based on these statistics I would rate the players seasons overall as D, B, C, A. B and C are pretty close for me but I think D stands out as the best player from this group.
Who are the players
A-Anze Kopitar
B-Jordan Staal
C-Evgeny Malkin
D- Paul Stastny.
Hmm who should win the Calder? Paul Stastny!
Nice post. Just proves that I was right all along with my opinion about Paul deserving the Calder more than the media-hyped players. It also shows that lots of the sports writers who were postulating that Staal was having a better year overall than Malkin may have been on to something.
ReplyDeleteOf course, this post also proves that you have too much time on your hands!
For more statistical fun, you should link to the Forechecker.
http://forechecker.blogspot.com/
Great stuff - I like the way you use "A, B, C, D..." and then pull the curtain away at the end. It helps the reader focus on the analysis, not the slights inferred by seeing their favorite player not at the top of the list.
ReplyDeleteVery creative, and I especially liked the final conclusion. Since one of my comments to your blog led the Islanders to create a "blog box", I'm hoping this comment convinces the voters to give Paul Stastny the Calder Trophy.
ReplyDeleteHear that, voters? Son Of Stastny is the best.